- Author’s bull case: Alibaba can rise from roughly $114 to $415/share by 2030 (3.6x; ~35% IRR) as the market still values it mainly as e-commerce and China exposure.
- Qwen, Alibaba Cloud (~40% China cloud share), chips, applications, distribution, commerce and payments span the AI stack; cheaper Chinese models and rising usage could monetize through cloud, ads, commerce and enterprise apps.
- The author expects AI Labs & Applications to reach EBIT profitability by FY31/CY2030 and ~$30B revenue, versus consensus loss of roughly RMB21B; total revenue reaches $300B and EBIT $60B in the bull case.
- China regulation, geopolitics and semiconductor restrictions remain the core risks, though the author sees AI investment as better aligned with Beijing’s 2026–30 priorities.
Investment pitches
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