- Author added RKT as a preferred way to express lower long-end rates, with potential earnings upside beyond simply owning duration.
- After Mr. Cooper and Redfin, Rocket services roughly $2T across 9M loans; its servicing relationships could drive refinance recapture if rates fall. Q2 included $49.1B originations, record purchase/refinance shares, and $766M adjusted EBITDA.
- At ~$11.65, consensus EPS of $0.62/$0.86/$1.05 for 2026–28 implies 19x/13.5x/11x forward P/E. A 15–20x 2028 multiple implies ~$15.70–20.90, or roughly 14%–30% annualized through year-end 2028.
- If rates stay high, the thesis rests on Rocket becoming a scaled integrated housing platform; the larger upside depends on lower yields, normalized mortgage activity, and potentially higher EPS estimates.
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