- Ibiden’s high-end ABF capacity is tightening: tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers are full, lead times reach 48–52 weeks, and 2027 capacity grows only 10–15% versus a projected shortfall from 27Q1.
- AI silicon consumes disproportionate capacity: author forecasts 2027 Intel/AMD server CPU shipments up 36%/62%, with new substrates 56–63% larger; Rubin is estimated at 1.8× Blackwell’s area, while TPU V9 and Trainium 4 yield only four substrates per panel.
- The thesis depends on higher 27Q1 contract-renewal pricing; specific quotes are not yet visible. The FY27Q2 results call is the near-term catalyst, while AMD substrate revenue temporarily declines as capacity shifts to Intel.
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