- Author’s long-term thesis: VAR makes Variational the venue for commodities, FX and equities, where discontinuous RWA markets favor RFQ over CLOB liquidity; Hyperliquid remains the crypto venue.
- RFQ captures bid-ask spread without explicit fees, but 43–78% of gross goes to market-making and hedging; scale could compress that cost and increase OLP and treasury capture.
- Author expects $1–2B launch FDV, citing a $7.7m public treasury and $70–100k average daily treasury revenue; TGE float, vesting and post-airdrop volume decay make point valuations unreliable.
- Bullish but expects early dumping: plans low-leverage VAR perp TWAPs during week one, reducing size above $2B and holding off above $5B; will track wallet distributions and VAR staked versus OLP deposits.
Investment pitches
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