- At $138, VST trades around 9–10x 2026 EV/EBITDA versus CEG at 14–15x, despite exposure to the same nuclear and power-scarcity theme.
- AWS and Meta agreements cover roughly 3.8 GW, while Cogentrix adds 5.5 GW of gas generation; the author expects Cogentrix to lift FCF/share from 2027.
- The author models $110 bear, $185 base, and $240 bull outcomes, supported by 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8–7.6B and ongoing buybacks.
- The author took only a small starter position while continuing diligence; merchant prices, leverage, outages, and execution could prevent rerating.
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