Dwarkesh Patel × Si Sheppard

Spain’s conquests were coalition takeovers: indigenous allies supplied most manpower, while horses, steel, and firearms created a decisive initial battlefield and psychological edge.Capturing Moctezuma and Atahualpa exploited centralized systems with a single point of failure, allowing tiny forces to decapitate local elites and seize control.The longer-term advantage came from reusable knowledge, naval power, disease, migration, and organization, while Potosí silver globalized trade but weakened Spain through a resource curse.

Molly O'Shea × Aistis Šimaitis × George Hadjiminas × Bruno Wejchert

Ukraine has made production scale as important as technology: Europe’s fragmented manufacturing base and years-long component lead times leave a clear opening for Onodrim’s acquisition-led model.Autonomous fleets also reset unit economics, turning $30,000 radios and other exquisite components into products that must become cheaper and available in thousands or millions; execution and procurement remain the watchpoints.

Peter Diamandis × Salim Ismail × Dave Blundin × Alexander Wissner-Gross × Palmer Luckey

Anduril’s $2.2 million wildfire XPRIZE win, including $1 million from Lockheed, shows its autonomy workflow can transfer to emergencies where a 10-minute versus hour-long response requires different tools.Luckey’s specialized, verifiable systems and self-funded product model challenge a market where five companies once captured roughly 80% of major defense acquisition programs, while Anduril’s choice to use rather than build humanoids keeps platform scope and procurement scale in focus.

Blake Scholl × Jason Calacanis

Boom’s 42 MW, water-free, behind-the-meter data-center system repurposes its Mach 1.7 engine core, with the first engine due next month, while vertical integration targets multiple gigawatts annually and more than 10 GW added to the grid over five years.Overture targets a $3,500 round-trip break-even fare and a four-year goal, but the actual service date remains uncertain as regulatory momentum accelerates.

Jared Isaacman

NASA is shifting capital from consensus-driven programs toward explicit national objectives, targeting Artemis 3 in summer 2027 and Artemis 4 in 2028.Repeated lunar missions could create demand for landers, rovers, and resource experiments, while public funding concentrates on fission power and nuclear-electric propulsion.SR1 Freedom’s 2028 target, uncertain lunar returns, and China’s ambitions make execution and launch capacity key watchpoints.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Gwynne Shotwell × Elon Musk

Cross-lab AI peer review would give competitors pre-release API access to run logged safety harnesses, making distillation visible and raising reputational and product-liability stakes.Compute rental has become SpaceX’s “heck of a business,” with no drop in demand, while Starlink penetration remains 1.5–2%.Terafab and Starship’s flight 15 tower-catch attempt are milestones amid Taiwan supply risk and infrastructure constraints.

Dino Mavrookas × Rob Lehman × Doug Lambert × Vibhav Altekar × Molly O'Shea

China outbuilds the US 230-to-1, while only 1% of roughly $1T 2026 Department of War budget went to autonomy.Saronic says faster iteration and volume can change maritime economics, with Marauder’s propulsion stack bench-built eight months before its 180-foot ship existed.Policy tailwinds are possible, but legal approval, manning requirements, classified subsea technology, and supply-chain bottlenecks remain watchpoints.

José × Ian Rountree

Cantos’ edge is deliberate smallness: Fund IV reached $70M, supporting $1.5–4M checks before websites and same-day SAFE execution.Ian favors hard tech, vertical integration and manufacturing scale, with Neros at 1,000 drones weekly and targeting a million annually.The opportunity is cost advantage and defense demand; China’s control of motors, actuators and rare-earth inputs remains a physical-AI risk.

Dino Mavrookas × Molly O'Shea

China built over 1,000 commercial ships last year versus five large ocean-going vessels in the US, while China holds 57% of global shipbuilding capacity.Port Alpha’s $3 billion project targets autonomous container ships, tankers, and roll-on/roll-off vessels: simpler designs could enable scale and lower costs, but only 1% of the roughly $1 trillion FY26 Department of War budget went to autonomy.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Walter Russell Mead

Mead sees a dynamic United States inside a collapsing Pax Americana, with information-revolution productivity keeping American power resilient.The investable question is whether “infostructure” can let AI and remote/hybrid work renew the ownership society while adapting to Ukraine’s drone-driven obsolescence.Taiwan’s “soft blockade” and Japan’s strategic awakening offer geopolitical variables as Trump’s unpredictability continues to erode institutional networks.