Harry Stebbings × Venky Ganesan

AI seed investing remains viable as an option strategy, but Menlo Ventures concentrates only after revenue and quantifiable evidence emerge, amid neo-labs and $10–20 million application rounds.With metrics vulnerable to gaming and a 10% seed stake potentially diluting to 3.5–4%, Venky says venture must beat the “Mag Seven” by roughly 1,000 basis points; vintage risk remains.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

AI’s narrative dominance masks a possible crypto bull market, as Yano reports revived interest after 18 barren months and tokens that have increased 50 times.Anthropic’s reported $1 of revenue per $60 of compute, possible ARR stabilization, and customer switching leave frontier-model economics unresolved, while 1 gigawatt of AI capacity costs $50–60 billion.Falling inference costs could strand capacity or trigger Jevons’ paradox, as LPs seek crypto’s growth-stage fintech opportunity as a countercyclical alternative to crowded AI.

Jonathan Siddharth × Molly O'Shea

Healthcare AI has crossed O'Shea’s threshold for measurable impact, with biological and chemical models, laboratory robotics and simulations targeting drug development’s high failure rates.After a decade building licenses, networks and care infrastructure, Devoted Health tripled in size, halved operating expenses and significantly increased EBITDA, while China’s rising pharmaceutical research share leaves domestic research and regulatory capacity as risks to monitor.

Henry Yin × 程曼祺

个人助理正从聊天入口转向主动执行的操作层：Dots月费100/200/500美元，Muse靠免费版本和社交平台分发。GPT-6 Astra在RoboDojo中平均成功率超22%，领先GPT-5.5与π0.5，但算力短缺和安全事故仍是风险。

Harry Stebbings × Jack Altman

Instinct’s $1 billion round at a $10 billion valuation raises the bar for defensible economics before compute costs overwhelm the company.Miro’s sale to Bending Spoons for roughly $1.35 billion after a $17.5 billion valuation shows positive cash flow cannot prevent late-stage SaaS repricing, while Mistral’s €3 billion round underscores AI’s European sovereignty agenda.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi’s GP dispute alleges holders publicly promised to hold while selling concealed inventory, making on-chain wallet behavior the key test of verifiable trust.Both hosts contrast meme-coin speculation with positive-sum crypto built on “good product, good revenues, good team,” citing Avi’s ZRO-versus-ETH trade and Robinhood’s perpetuals rollout through Bitstamp.They frame five-year mega trends, retail investors’ tolerance for volatility and AI-driven concentration as the durable signals, while leaving the best expression—broad exposure or concentrated winners—unresolved.

David George × Sarah Wang × Alex Immerman × Santiago Rodriguez

AI’s rally is being driven by earnings rather than multiple expansion, with the S&P 500 below 20 times earnings while growing about 15%.Capex is projected to rise from $416 billion in 2025 to about $780 billion in 2026 and exceed $1 trillion annually from 2027; enterprise adoption remains concentrated in pilots, with inference-cost declines and workflow deployment as catalysts.

David Senra × Alexander Taubman

Long Lake’s announced $6.3 billion take-private of American Express Global Business Travel turns 111 years of trust, high-90s logo retention, and 100%+ dollar retention into an AI distribution thesis.Nexus reuses 70-80% of its infrastructure and cuts HOA email work to 5-10 minutes.Travel is an immediate test, while productivity-led growth and execution shape the path beyond $4 billion of expected revenue next year.

Bill Ackman × Shane Parrish

AI is transformational but bubble-like, with one startup’s valuation jumping from $400 million to $1 billion in two weeks and another reaching $5 billion in Series A.Cognition’s claimed COBOL modernization in days could lower bank costs, but pricing power determines whether shareholders retain the savings.Ackman therefore emphasizes disciplined capital use, continual moat reassessment, and exiting when confidence—not merely price—breaks.

Peter Diamandis × Emad Mostaque × Cathie Wood × Nikhil Chandhok

Peter said a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced this year, and Cathie said ARK believes it will happen, combining rockets, broadband, AI, electric vehicles and energy around Musk’s Mars-directed compute strategy, though China remains a major obstacle.Nikhil Chandhok expects AI agents to outnumber humans next year, while Arc tests agent credit and stablecoin rails whose capacity must grow from tens of thousands to potentially millions of transactions per second.