SHOW DIRECTORY
Delphi Digital
Delphi Digital's conversations and research discussions across crypto, AI, technology, venture investing, and markets, including Hivemind and The Delphi Podcast.
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Crypto's $150 Trillion Opportunity
CeterisJasonYanKevinJoseGuy Young
Tokenized real-asset perpetuals could expand crypto derivatives from a $2.5–3 trillion base toward a $150 trillion market, with Guy Young expecting non-crypto contracts to surpass crypto derivatives in open interest within 24 months. 24/7 access, leverage, and liquidity extend reach beyond US brokerage accounts and could keep capital on-chain through cycles, while DEX cost advantages remain tempered by Ethena’s preference for CEX hedging and dollar insurance funds.
Crypto Isn't The Frontier Anymore
Crypto returns concentrated in stores of value and revenue-producing protocols including Zcash, Ethena, LIT and HYPE, while ETH and SOL lagged.Zcash’s constrained mining supply and Bitcoin-relative reflexivity supported upside, but its store-of-value trade remains vulnerable to an 80% drawdown.HYPE’s buybacks, RWAs, HyperEVM and new products offer catalysts, alongside onchain options and tokenized equities, amid liquidity, protocol and macro risks.
Alt Season is Already Here
Delphi says the healthy alt-season sequence has played out: ETF flows remain consistent, leverage has not built, and BTC cooling while alts lead supports an alt-pickers’ market.Momentum may sustain gains without new asset-class inflows; on-chain stocks offer a differentiated one-to-two-year theme, while HYPE’s fee-funded buybacks and expanding markets provide catalysts, with regulation and selling discipline key risks.
Why the Future of Venture Is Hard Tech, Drones & Physical AI | Ian Rountree
Cantos’ edge is deliberate smallness: Fund IV reached $70M, supporting $1.5–4M checks before websites and same-day SAFE execution.Ian favors hard tech, vertical integration and manufacturing scale, with Neros at 1,000 drones weekly and targeting a million annually.The opportunity is cost advantage and defense demand; China’s control of motors, actuators and rare-earth inputs remains a physical-AI risk.
China’s AI Advantage Is Bigger Than You Think
Chinese labs are stabilizing multi-trillion-parameter MoE training and open-sourcing recipes that spread GRPO/RLVR variants within months.Open-weight price wars could make tokens an electricity derivative as China adds capacity 6x faster and co-designs weaker chips for cheaper serving.A 2028 Ascend model could be a catalyst, while possible export restrictions preserve bridge-demolition risk.
The Move No One Was Positioned For
Bitcoin’s potential trend change is backed by near-all-time-low positioning versus equities and ETF inflows of roughly $200M–$300M daily, though leverage washouts remain possible.Debasement is regaining focus as AI’s capital pull weakens, while HYPE’s strength supports consensus momentum and a possible Kinetiq-led HyperEVM wealth effect.Monitor AERO’s mid-September ETH migration, GRASS’s disclosure test, Zcash’s roughly seven-month ASIC lag and the lack of an obvious ETF- or Saylor-driven buyer.
Most Venture Funds Are Playing Momentum Games | Michael Dempsey
Venture momentum is uniquely fragile: without scaled liquidity, dilution and preferred stacks can turn a softening bid into a 100% drawdown rather than 10–20%.Compound’s seed data finds that every valuation bucket above the bottom quartile produces similar top-decile outcomes, while Dempsey sees a 2028–2030 AI window and must rebuild the firm’s edge through higher-order analysis.
Everyone is Sleeping on the Next On-Chain Boom
FWA, Meteora, Pump-versus-FOMO activity and reported Robinhood usage suggest on-chain “green shoots” driven mostly by existing capital.Earlier booms released native-token wealth, while centralized firms generate more revenue than on-chain products; HYPE’s HIP-3, xStocks and reported Coinbase/Circle USDC changes are catalysts, with FWA novelty and HyperEVM’s missing wealth effect as risks.
Steve McLaughlin Built a Multi-Billion-Dollar Investment Bank and Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game
Fintech remains a single-digit percentage of financial services, growing 20-30% versus banks’ 3-5%, as Fiserv, FIS, and PayPal face AI-native challengers.FT Partners’ Lynk sale—$550M versus $150M bids after only 15% growth—and its $50M Revolut bet illustrate how diligence, conviction capital, and incentives can capture value, while no-moat AI applications remain exposed to competition.
Building the SoftBank of Robotics | Andrew Kang
Humanoid robotics may be approaching the pre-ChatGPT phase of AI, with $50,000 robots requiring only 20,000 units for $1B revenue and a projected tens-of-billions industry within two to four years.Robo Strategy (NASDAQ: BOT) seeks to challenge SoftBank through public markets, favoring vertically integrated players with embodiment-specific data; US restrictions on Chinese robots could help, while robotics data businesses face a two-to-five-year durability test.