Tron - a faster horse for Justin's memecoin season?
This is a short-term trade idea and is high-risk / low transparency and relatively simple:
- ◆TRX is already one of the most fee-generating entities in crypto right next to ETH and BTC at 1-2 Bn USD per annum, mostly facilitated by grey-market OTC USDT volume thanks to years of work done by Justin Sun & team. The volume & fee burn are organic and highly recurring given the economic activities related to USDT on TRON. This had been covered many times.
- ◆A week ago, Justin Sun launched its Pump.Fun equivalent on Tron called Sun.Pump — with Justin’s personal memecoin $SUNDOG garnering significant volume + CEX listings in a short amount of time. The chain hit a new high in fees and is likely gonna continue for a while:
- ◆It’s likely fair to expect a couple of things:
- ◆Justin Sun will continue to create wealth effect with its controlled memcoins on Tron, gathering potentially significant eyeball and user traffic to Tron.
- ◆Given the eyeballs and dollars migrating to chase after these memecoins, more teams that are experienced in launching memecoins / scams are going to migrate over, creating more users and launches in the next couple of days.
- ◆Looking at Pump’s deployment from 0 to 15k memecoins / day, it took them 2 months to get there (Mar - May 2024). It’s possible Justin’s TRON achieve it in 2-3 weeks.
- ◆All this combined + mindshare increase should translate to significant usage / demand and consequently burn of the TRX token.
For those who experienced DeFi summer, they might remember what Tron was like back then. Projects like Salmon and Pearl were heavily manipulated from the start, who aggressively pumped the price, leading those who hesitated early on regret missing out — inducing massive fomo and eventually followed by a dump + a series of new copycat projects that followed. The entire hype cycle lasted about 3 weeks if I recall correctly.
The joke about Justin being a “project terminator” isn’t baseless. Part of it comes from his significant influence over the grassroots community in the crypto space, part of it is likely due to significant amount of capital commanded to really push price around. The way to participate, as always. is to jump in immediately at the very beginning while the masses remain skeptical, watch it closely, and exit quickly as the sentiment in the Chinese community reaches Hysteria — or just stay away entirely.
$TRX thereby is the easy levered beta for this potentially unfolding frenzy — similar to ETH as the base pair for ICO seasons + DeFi summer, and SOL as the base pair for Pump.Fun, TRX should be able to quickly accrue “moneyness” within a short period of time and supercharge its returns.
Some more supporting data — this may shock some people but it’s actually the highest fee generating blockchains out there + now closing 100 Bn of weekly USDT volume:
Risk — it’s pretty obvious
- ◆Not necessarily early to the thesis. Timeline is probably 2 weeks — and you exit then regardless of outcome. Best time would probably be when they announced Sun.pump in mid-August when price as 12-13 cents.
- ◆Do you really want to be in bed with Justin Sun and the Cabal so there’s exit liquidity risk.
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