The White House Accord on Superintelligence turns six frontier companies’ voluntary pledge into board-level governance via internal controls, external audits and independent oversight, with FTC and SEC enforcement behind public commitments.It opens a market for professional auditors and compliance infrastructure, while open-weight models shift security spending toward cyber defense, compute and electricity; the next 12-18 months may test GPU-access policy.

Maya Barkin × Reyk Knühtsen × Jordan Nanos × Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros

Mapping 400+ local instruments against 3,500 projects finds 300+ moratoriums but only three projects actively affected: AWS, NorthPoint, and CoreSite.Roughly 80% of live restrictions have no capacity behind them, leaving the forecast unchanged and making behind-the-meter power more attractive; New York delays roughly 800MW by 6–10 months, while an off-grid-blocking Texas-scale ban is key risk.

Robert Boswell × Jordan Nanos

PJM’s capacity-auction modeling—not data-center demand alone—is estimated to have made $12B of the $63B spent across its last four auctions avoidable.Constrained supply, “endless summer” demand assumptions, and pay-as-clear pricing amplify marginal scarcity across 66 million people, while a September or October emergency auction could commit up to $21B through 2042–43 if data-center load fails to arrive.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × John Fetterman × Dave McCormick

Pennsylvania is positioning abundant energy and data-center investment as a national-security and middle-class revival strategy, with $92 billion committed and 4.4 gigawatts planned at Homer City.The buildout is already lifting skilled-trade wages above $100,000 and could give the U.S. a 6–8-month lead over China, but water, grid, job displacement and political opposition remain key execution risks.

Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton proposes roughly $60 billion in tax relief, funded partly by cutting California’s alleged $80 billion annual fraud, waste and abuse, to restore household purchasing power and business investment.His housing, energy, education, enforcement and electoral platform depends on overcoming union and legislative resistance while converting cost-of-living dissatisfaction into a 2026 winning coalition.

Rory Johnston

Physical shortages are arriving at tanker speed: Gulf shut-ins of roughly 13 million barrels a day are already showing up in Asian jet fuel above $200, refinery run cuts, and Italian airport rationing.Even immediate reopening would leave more than 400 million barrels unproduced and potentially over 800 million lost by summer’s end; $144 dated Brent, $110 June futures, and diesel cracks near $90 make restored traffic—and further infrastructure attacks—the decisive variables.

李翔 × 李丰

美以伊目标缺乏交集，短期停火困难，战争已引发所有资产齐跌、仅美元上涨的极端risk off，并将市场推向滞胀交易。若伊朗政权被颠覆，中国将面临石油结算、能源定价与西部安全三重压力；未来5—10年能源多元化、生物制造和核能力重估值得跟踪。

Thread Guy × gemchanger_ltd

Ukraine’s campaign has shifted from isolated refinery strikes to coordinated attacks on ports, pipelines, storage, refineries and tankers, with 40–50% of Russian export capacity reportedly offline and 60–70% possible through network effects.Western-made Siemens and Honeywell systems are difficult to replace under sanctions, while Hormuz’s insurance choke point and Iran’s cheap-energy Bitcoin mining could extend the shock, though the scale and positioning remain uncertain.

Raymond × Ian

电力成本并非 token 降价的唯一主因，基建、冷却、芯片与推理成本同样构成关键成本。AIDC 接入电网可能将投资摊入 rate base，表后发电、可中断负荷与 power shell 溢价值得关注；Stargate 扩建仍受资金问题约束。

刘一鸣 × 何倩然 × 杨璐 × 张从志

中国动力电池的领先来自政策需求、完整供应链与微米级制造积累，护城河集中在从 PPM 到 PPB 的一致性和良率。固态电池可能要到 2030 年前后，未来五至十年更值得观察钠离子、干法电极、直接锂提取与回收等替代路径。