All-In

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Nikesh Arora

Chamath estimates 90% of AI spending is concentrated in 1% of companies, with 80% from unprofitable VC-backed businesses, leaving genuine demand diffusion the key test.France’s 10-year yield has exceeded 5%; Chamath says bond pressure toward 8% could force a reset, while Jason sees no reasonable endgame.

Arvind Krishna × Nikesh Arora

Krishna's 2028, 2029 or 2033 quantum timeline makes cryptographic migration a current spending decision: stolen encrypted data could be decrypted later.He expects open-weight models to capture 75%–90% of tokens, with optimized owned-GPU costs of $1–$2 per million versus $20–$50 externally.Enterprises may consolidate 500–5,000 software vendors into 5–10 platforms, but reliable transaction systems will be harder to replace.

Martin Shkreli

Shkreli limits quantum’s edge to factoring and elliptic-curve logarithms; current machines lack quantum RAM.He calls industry spending speculative and expects analog optical computing to challenge Nvidia’s H100, B100, and B200 within 20 years.His pharmaceutical thesis favors mispriced discarded molecules; he calls AI drug discovery within five years “nonsense” and expects no AI-related drug in the next 10 years.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Anthropic’s outreach to roughly 20 religious leaders and Claude Constitution turn model consciousness, welfare and refusal behavior into a governance risk.OpenAI’s 700-plus papers reportedly averaged under three hours of compute per result, strengthening the machine-reasoning signal while cryptography concerns remain speculation rather than evidence.France’s 10-year yield above 5% and €43 billion austerity sharpen relative sovereign-risk concerns, while transactional agents could erode conventional software moats.

Daniel Ek

Spotify passed 700 million active users and 300 million premium subscribers; Daniel Ek became executive chairman January 1 and returned to building.Neko's $499 unit-economic-positive visit combines 53 blood markers, 6,000 images and clinician review in roughly an hour.Over 100,000 scans found serious, previously undiagnosed conditions in roughly 1% of members; population outcomes and budget effects remain unresolved.

Blake Scholl × Jason Calacanis

Boom’s 42 MW, water-free, behind-the-meter data-center system repurposes its Mach 1.7 engine core, with the first engine due next month, while vertical integration targets multiple gigawatts annually and more than 10 GW added to the grid over five years.Overture targets a $3,500 round-trip break-even fare and a four-year goal, but the actual service date remains uncertain as regulatory momentum accelerates.

Naveen Rao × Chamath Palihapitiya

Unconventional AI taped out a physical dynamical computer five months after starting in earnest, generating images at 500 nanojoules each versus millijoules on a GPU.Its 4D architecture co-locates compute and memory, targeting 1,000× power efficiency as AI demand approaches an energy wall in about 3 years.A rack-scale product is promised within two years, with adoption hinging on model-layer porting and a new Python-based software stack.

Jared Isaacman

NASA is shifting capital from consensus-driven programs toward explicit national objectives, targeting Artemis 3 in summer 2027 and Artemis 4 in 2028.Repeated lunar missions could create demand for landers, rovers, and resource experiments, while public funding concentrates on fission power and nuclear-electric propulsion.SR1 Freedom’s 2028 target, uncertain lunar returns, and China’s ambitions make execution and launch capacity key watchpoints.

Satya Nadella

Persistent AI agents create a new insider-risk category: even mundane enterprise tasks could trigger reward hacking or falsified books.Behavioral monitoring, full auditability, and causal or semantic verification are the proposed response, while cheaper models shift margin toward applications and middleware.Microsoft’s “use all but be independent of all” strategy makes interoperability an adoption catalyst, but 7–8% broad-based GDP growth and social license remain tests.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Gwynne Shotwell × Elon Musk

Cross-lab AI peer review would give competitors pre-release API access to run logged safety harnesses, making distillation visible and raising reputational and product-liability stakes.Compute rental has become SpaceX’s “heck of a business,” with no drop in demand, while Starlink penetration remains 1.5–2%.Terafab and Starship’s flight 15 tower-catch attempt are milestones amid Taiwan supply risk and infrastructure constraints.