Yaron Werber

Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Jake Becraft

XBI remains up 20% YTD but fell from 169 to roughly 146 amid biotech’s largest cumulative hedge-fund de-grossing in more than five years.IPO markets remain open but favor clinical catalysts and defensible IP; M&A could restart buying, while Bristol’s low-dose-only significant admilparant result supports LPA1 in IPF but leaves dose response unresolved.

Sam Fazeli × Yaron Werber × Brian Skorney × Matt Gline

Biotech’s healthy headline tape masked long-short degrossing and rate sensitivity, while 22 IPOs and record-period average proceeds showed primary-market resilience.MFN may rebalance global contributions through revenue sharing rather than simply cut U.S. prices, but Europe could restrict access or favor cheaper Chinese drugs; meanwhile, durable VK2735 efficacy, Celldex safety and Vertex’s interim analysis define catalysts.

Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Yaron Werber

HORIZON was “completely negative” despite pelacarsen reducing Lp(a) 80%, challenging biomarker shortcuts as Amgen fell 10% on read-through.Novartis’s Avidity failure less than a year after the $12 billion acquisition drove Artisan’s sales cut of about $5 billion and EPS CAGR to 4%.Dyne’s 25% placebo-adjusted CASI-22 splice correction and Roivant’s 56% PVR reduction set up catalysts, while endpoint and outcome risks remain.

Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Jake Becraft

Biotech’s washout is intensifying: 16 of 18 2024 IPOs trade below issue at a median 61% decline, despite Jake Becraft seeing fundamentals intact.Weak commercialization economics reinforce M&A dependence; Pfizer’s planned BD activity and obesity interest, plus Jazz-Chimerix and AbbVie-Gubra, point to catalysts while Pliant and Biohaven test differentiation.

Graig Suvannavejh × Tim Opler × Yaron Werber × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney

Biotech is decisively outperforming, with XBI +24% YTD versus +9% for the S&P 500, as Graig sees FDA headwinds turning into tailwinds alongside 14 IPOs and $300B+ of pharma revenue at LOE risk.Reverse mergers now rival traditional IPOs, while J&J’s $785M Sail deal and $2.6B acquisition option reinforce hot in vivo CAR-T M&A.Alnylam’s roughly 30% TTR sell-off and Novo’s ZEUS miss leave upcoming data and year-end M&A as key tests.

Yaron Werber × John Maraganore × Sam Fazeli × Matt Gline

Lilly’s $3.8B atai Beckley acquisition, ahead of a pivotal readout, extends its prevention and DTC “tech company” strategy while hedging potential obesity pressure a decade out.Roivant’s imminent brepocitinib launch combines orphan-market economics with pricing expected closer to IVIG’s $225K than Vyvgart’s $870K, while Merck’s $3,800 enlicitide and tau ASO tolerability keep affordability and validation in focus.

Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × SamFazeli × Brian Skorney

AI is driving biotech’s tape: SMH is up 66% year-to-date versus IBB at 1% and XBI at 8%, while BIOSECURE and expanded COINS-style screening could redirect China dealmaking toward Europe.Ivonescimab cut death risk 34% in HARMONi-6, while daraxonrasib extended survival to 13.2 versus 6.7 months; SERENA-4 and CDK4 readouts, translatability, toxicity, and in vivo CAR-T durability warrant monitoring.

Graig Suvannavejh × Chris Garabedian × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber

Sanofi’s $9.1B Blueprint Medicines acquisition combines a 27% premium with rare-disease and immunology expansion.Consensus supports a $2B drug by 2030, while Summit’s HARMONi-A showed a 0.52 PFS hazard ratio across China and US cohorts.OS missed at p=0.057, and Kymera’s 90% STAT6 degradation, clean safety and Q4 atopic-dermatitis data keep filing and differentiation risks in focus.

Grace Colón × Chris Garabedian × Sam Fazeli × Paul Matteis × Yaron Werber × John Stanford

House-passed FY2026 NDAA would make biotech a national-security asset through a new DoD office and SBIR-like funding, while a watered down BIOSECURE Act could constrain listed suppliers.Nearly $2B raised and XBI up 35%–36% YTD signal a thaw, but IPOs remain unconfirmed; ASH challenged BeiGene and favored anito-cel, while Dyne’s DMD path remains clouded by biomarker uncertainty.

John Maraganore × Yaron Werber × Ami Fadia × Allison DeAngelis × Drew Armstrong

Rick Pazdur’s CDER appointment may steady FDA leadership, but the vague “plausible mechanism pathway” and its apparent conflict with uniQure keep regulatory execution a key risk.Competitive M&A—Lundbeck’s $2.6B Avadel bid versus Alkermes’ $2.1B offer—and Cogent’s PEAK, with 16.5-month mPFS in second-line GIST, create catalysts, while Intellia’s clinical hold keeps gene-editing safety unresolved.