The White House Accord on Superintelligence turns six frontier companies’ voluntary pledge into board-level governance via internal controls, external audits and independent oversight, with FTC and SEC enforcement behind public commitments.It opens a market for professional auditors and compliance infrastructure, while open-weight models shift security spending toward cyber defense, compute and electricity; the next 12-18 months may test GPU-access policy.

Shanghao Jin

中美会谈暂缓关税与稀土限制，但台湾、芯片出口分歧仍待谈判。成品油是通胀关键变量：中国每日增100万—200万桶出口，裂解差或降至40；受限则欧洲柴油可能涨50%以上。美国通胀被判断为transitory，短期卖盘或压低市场，AI与半导体中期支撑未变。

David Hunter × Jimmy Connor

David Hunter targets S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 36,000 and roughly 30–40% further upside, with a parabolic final leg if his secular-bull thesis is right.He simultaneously expects unprecedented debt and derivatives leverage to drive a potential 80% global bust, while seeing lower oil and a bond-market bull move as key cycle pivots.The timing remains unresolved: he sees a very good chance of a bust next year, but expects oil to fall and gold and silver to reach 7,000 and 200 before then.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Matthew Smith

Matthew Smith’s model points to US natural-gas storage falling below all historical levels by 2029 as contracted LNG and AI compute outstrip deliverability, with electricity prices bearing the impact in 2028-2030.The market remains priced near $3.50-3.60, while Expand Energy and Range offer leverage to a potential physical-gas scramble; processing, pipelines, nuclear timelines, and consumer costs remain key risks.

Dan Dreyfus

AI, reshoring, defense, and electrification are colliding with decades of infrastructure underinvestment, turning critical minerals into a supply shock against surging demand.China’s export restrictions exposed near-term shutdown risk, while Washington’s equity, permitting, and floor-price offtake package could finance new mines; copper supply may still lag enough for prices to double.

李翔 × 李丰

两轮risk off后，资金重新涌入中美最拥挤的AI与机器人交易，英伟达市值升至5.5万亿美元。美国增长预期约一半建立在大型公司AI Capex持续增加之上，但低成本旧产能、企业FOMO与囤货放大了一季度表现。亚马逊可能已进入Capex超过自由现金流阶段，微软等或于明年一至二季度跟随，而token收入尚未证明商业闭环。

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Global crude could hit operational tank bottoms by September: inelastic demand and an 8mbd supply loss could keep oil above $100, though Avi says $200 would force resolution within two months.A 50% chance of a December rate hike and Kevin Warsh’s possible real-time CPI rebase create an underpriced catalyst for equities and an even harsher risk for crypto, while Jonah argues AI’s marginal dollar remains far from exhausted.

BrokieTrades

Polymarket’s neg-risk mechanism lets BrokieTrades convert No shares into Yes shares across mutually exclusive outcomes, while his geopolitical edge comes from weighing incentives and source quality.He pairs near-term long oil with a six-month Brent short on Hyperliquid, where direction feels clearer than timing.Key risks are contract resolution, an IRGC survival narrative, and supply-chain damage that could outlast an oil selloff.

Rory Johnston

Physical shortages are arriving at tanker speed: Gulf shut-ins of roughly 13 million barrels a day are already showing up in Asian jet fuel above $200, refinery run cuts, and Italian airport rationing.Even immediate reopening would leave more than 400 million barrels unproduced and potentially over 800 million lost by summer’s end; $144 dated Brent, $110 June futures, and diesel cracks near $90 make restored traffic—and further infrastructure attacks—the decisive variables.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil's $120 spike appears driven by consensus short covering, while force majeure leaves physical traders with naked financial hedges and July implied daily volatility near $6.50 versus $1 normal.A 90% chance of resolution within weeks points to Saudi supply and forced re-hedging as downside catalysts, while prolonged Hormuz closure remains the 10% stagflation risk behind six-month gold calls.