Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

A sovereign-authorized USDT oil purchase, despite a failed $230M Venezuelan deal, signals stablecoins entering commodity settlement while the underlying failure reflected diligence, not crypto.AI-driven copper scarcity and Meta’s frontier push sharpen the competitive map, but model prices at 1–10% of frontier offerings and a roughly two-year superintelligence timeline leave unresolved disruption risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Global crude could hit operational tank bottoms by September: inelastic demand and an 8mbd supply loss could keep oil above $100, though Avi says $200 would force resolution within two months.A 50% chance of a December rate hike and Kevin Warsh’s possible real-time CPI rebase create an underpriced catalyst for equities and an even harsher risk for crypto, while Jonah argues AI’s marginal dollar remains far from exhausted.

Thread Guy × Thiccy

Bitcoin’s ETF, Trump-era institutional, and DAT/MSTR reratings may have pulled future demand forward without producing the expected strategic reserve, while Gold captures debasement flows from Chinese savers.Because 2026 chaos has not rewarded Bitcoin as SVB did, monitor whether capital shifts toward liquid markets with weaker participants and genuinely unsolved casino formats.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin at 78K sits in Avi’s original 71–77 buy zone after a 40% drawdown, with a proposed stop below 74 and take-profit near 90, though Jonah sees a broken four-year cycle and no momentum.Metals remain a falling-knife risk as CTA selling may be only 25% complete, while Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 has exceeded $1B in RWA volume and makes HYPE the panel’s conviction long.

Arthur Hayes × Thread Guy

Hayes frames Bitcoin below $100,000 as a leverage-and-time-horizon problem, with his 12-to-18-month bull case resting on continued easing.His Zcash thesis links possible 10%-20% of Bitcoin’s value to AI-driven surveillance and privacy infrastructure, while acknowledging the vehicle may differ.His HYPE framework prioritizes token value accrual and Bitcoin accumulation; HIP-3 execution, low-fee competition, and political austerity remain key variables.

Peter Schiff × Thread Guy

Peter Schiff sees gold’s move toward $4,400 as evidence that central banks are diversifying away from dollars, with a sovereign-debt crisis potentially more dangerous than 2008 because bailouts would intensify inflation.With roughly $38 trillion of U.S. debt, one-third maturing within a year, and interest potentially approaching $4 trillion at 10%, he argues Volcker-style rates are unavailable while tokenized vaulted gold could give blockchain a useful settlement role.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s move above $107k as the S&P posts two losing sessions signals crypto-specific demand, while a Cambrian wave of products from Nakamoto, MicroStrategy, Republic, and Coinbase points to latent institutional appetite.Alt season may be short-lived: Launchcoin reached $270M FDV with $15M in weekly fees and a P/E “like four,” while 40% Deribit funding and $3B of new BTC open interest flag leverage risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin remains in a high-volatility range after holding 75K twice, with Avi favoring partial profit-taking and cash while Jonah sees the market in a new range and watches IBIT/SPY for renewed inflows.The sharper crypto thesis favors tokens with revenue-funded buybacks, while Avi’s 3–6 month RWA basket trade, China tariff risk, and gold’s six-to-12-month outlook define the catalysts and unresolved macro fork.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Election uncertainty makes Bitcoin dominance the cleanest trade: BTC could survive either administration, while altcoins face a binary regulatory outcome.Near $57,900, widened price increments, $200 gaps, and five-day outflows point to broken liquidity, so Avi prefers selling rallies and buying $52K-$53K.Professional alt mandates amplify losses, while Helium and Aave offer conditional upside with unresolved token-value capture and crowded positioning.