Trump’s Super Intelligence Summit, AI Safety Accord, GDP Beats, Midterm Predictions
The White House Accord on Superintelligence turns six frontier companies’ voluntary pledge into board-level governance via internal controls, external audits and independent oversight, with FTC and SEC enforcement behind public commitments.It opens a market for professional auditors and compliance infrastructure, while open-weight models shift security spending toward cyber defense, compute and electricity; the next 12-18 months may test GPU-access policy.
Vol.236 宏观漫谈111|中美元首会谈、AI发展边界与全球资金的“蓄水池”逻辑
中美元首会谈将贸易竞争措施暂缓安排延至次年1月10日,覆盖黑五至元旦购物季,细则待后续机制明确。AI叙事转向安全与可控性,云端模型或先服务高付费编程;中国资金转向固收,而数据中心高融资成本与延期交付仍是美国金融风险线索。
MARKET UPDATE: Alts Ripping, Economy Crushing, Scammers Scamming — What’s Next?
Avi’s GP dispute alleges holders publicly promised to hold while selling concealed inventory, making on-chain wallet behavior the key test of verifiable trust.Both hosts contrast meme-coin speculation with positive-sum crypto built on “good product, good revenues, good team,” citing Avi’s ZRO-versus-ETH trade and Robinhood’s perpetuals rollout through Bitstamp.They frame five-year mega trends, retail investors’ tolerance for volatility and AI-driven concentration as the durable signals, while leaving the best expression—broad exposure or concentrated winners—unresolved.
市场概述2026年9月29日
中美会谈暂缓关税与稀土限制,但台湾、芯片出口分歧仍待谈判。成品油是通胀关键变量:中国每日增100万—200万桶出口,裂解差或降至40;受限则欧洲柴油可能涨50%以上。美国通胀被判断为transitory,短期卖盘或压低市场,AI与半导体中期支撑未变。
Crypto Isn't The Frontier Anymore
Crypto returns concentrated in stores of value and revenue-producing protocols including Zcash, Ethena, LIT and HYPE, while ETH and SOL lagged.Zcash’s constrained mining supply and Bitcoin-relative reflexivity supported upside, but its store-of-value trade remains vulnerable to an 80% drawdown.HYPE’s buybacks, RWAs, HyperEVM and new products offer catalysts, alongside onchain options and tokenized equities, amid liquidity, protocol and macro risks.
A Bear Market Inside a Bull Market
Jordi Visser sees a “bear market happening inside a bull market”: Magnificent 7 stocks make highs while IWM/QQQ and rate-sensitive sectors trade at bear-market levels.Quiet credit spreads, jobless claims and earnings up 17% challenge the rate-doom trade, while Meta’s Muse makes consumer agents a 12-month catalyst whose hype could fuel multiple compression over the next 3 months.
David Hunter on the S&P 500, Bonds, Gold & Oil | What Comes Next?
David Hunter targets S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 36,000 and roughly 30–40% further upside, with a parabolic final leg if his secular-bull thesis is right.He simultaneously expects unprecedented debt and derivatives leverage to drive a potential 80% global bust, while seeing lower oil and a bond-market bull move as key cycle pivots.The timing remains unresolved: he sees a very good chance of a bust next year, but expects oil to fall and gold and silver to reach 7,000 and 200 before then.
September 2026 Random Ramblings
Equities remain near record highs even as the 10-year yield climbed from 4.2% to 5.1% by September 24, suggesting rates’ financial gravity may be operating with a long fuse.As 2021-23 debt reaches 2028-31 refinancing, replacing 3.5% coupons with 8-10% could expose overstated free cash flow, while higher discount rates reduce special-situation spreads and may leave a more brittle market.
ELITE Strategist: How to position for the NEXT AI trade
Warren Pies has flipped back to overweight equities, targeting an S&P 500 at 8,000 within the next few months as he sees a 1997-style Fed pause.Semiconductors remain the trade’s critical signal, with nearly 20% of market cap and a 90% performance spread between semi-up and semi-down days.GPU scarcity, rising B200 rental rates, and optimistic lab ARR support the AI bull case, while a renewed hiking cycle, venture-funding shock, or bipartisan data-center backlash could break it.
MARKET UPDATE: Meta, Bitcoin, Crude And The Economy Are All Ripping. How Long Can It Last?
Avi frames ten-year yields above 5% as distrust in the Fed, supporting his long-and-strong stance on Bitcoin, Intel, and Nasdaq.AI-driven copper demand may push copper toward $8, while lab-grown diamonds at $6 per carat expose monopoly economics.Cheaper AI could expand usage and GDP, but rising yields pressure real estate as Jonah watches early-to-mid-2027 for capitulation.









