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Dwarkesh Podcast
Deeply researched interviews.
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What will computer chips look like in 2045?
Ranade says available tools may support 2X, not 10X, leading-edge wafer output, while an Intel speaker says AI demand is 40–50% above maximum capacity.With roughly 80% of fab costs fixed, utilization and yield matter; TSMC ships upwards of 3X Intel’s leading-edge wafers, and Ranade says Intel will invest more, though tool limits remain.
Jensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist?
Jensen argues TPU and ASIC growth is concentrated in Anthropic, while Nvidia’s broader programmable platform and supply-chain commitments preserve its reach and unit-TCO advantage.Groq expands Nvidia into premium low-latency inference, with Vera Rubin and Feynman targeting annual order-of-magnitude token-cost declines; China export controls remain an unresolved strategic risk after a direct security challenge.
Satya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough
Hyperscalers should capture AI infrastructure value as agents multiply compute demand, while open source and enterprise buyers constrain single-model dominance.Microsoft’s $13B AI revenue is a spending governor amid expected overbuild and cheaper leased capacity in '27 and '28; Majorana One’s fault-tolerant timeline remains '27, '28, '29, while agentic SaaS faces legal and change-management risks.