All-In

Ben Horowitz

CoreWeave’s 953-basis-point CDS implies 16% annual default risk; fixed-price contracts and $35 billion more to raise leave Chamath’s team estimating a $5 billion break-even gap.Sacks sees demand holding, but financing costs remain a risk; Chamath urges Anthropic to raise at least $200 billion for compute, with SemiAnalysis estimating it and OpenAI will take 60% of next year’s global additions.

Martin Shkreli

Shkreli limits quantum’s edge to factoring and elliptic-curve logarithms; current machines lack quantum RAM.He calls industry spending speculative and expects analog optical computing to challenge Nvidia’s H100, B100, and B200 within 20 years.His pharmaceutical thesis favors mispriced discarded molecules; he calls AI drug discovery within five years “nonsense” and expects no AI-related drug in the next 10 years.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Elon’s reported lease of Colossus 1 gives Anthropic more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs and 300 MW, turning compute scarcity into hyperscaler revenue while xAI moves to Colossus 2.Anthropic’s rapid ARR growth and hyperscaler demand support the AI infrastructure trade, but OpenAI, Google and xAI are responding; monitor whether enterprise buyers prove measurable ROI within roughly 500 days and whether cyber regulation remains targeted.

Travis Kalanick × Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

OpenAI's enterprise growth is described at 3–4X annually versus Anthropic's roughly 10X, while metered coding tokens scale faster than consumer plans limited by perhaps 3–4% premium conversion.Frontier compute is becoming an infrastructure war—Colossus targets 555,000 GPUs—while power and permits threaten roughly 100 contested data centers worth $162 billion; near-record valuation measures and unproven enterprise profits remain key risks.