20VC

Harry Stebbings

Fund-scale return targets narrow venture: $50–100M seed valuations and $300–500K allocations can make an $18B winner immaterial.CoreWeave must fill capacity and fund buildout; Modal topped $1B run rate after raising $750M at $15.75B, amid unresolved inference competition.Town at $1B and Anduril at $90B highlight entry-price risk, with Anduril’s roughly 40x revenue demanding substantial execution.

Harry Stebbings

Pro rata rights emerge as economically valuable options, while Meta’s Muse Wonder signals a return to the model frontier despite unresolved usability questions.Meanwhile, rumored NVIDIA-Reflection and Jev’s $870 million Series A at a $7.5 billion valuation hinge on strategic control, hyper-accurate classification, and whether AI demand can absorb steep inference-price cuts.

Harry Stebbings × Mike Cannon-Brookes

Atlassian is betting that agents will expand interface value, especially for collaborative work requiring taste, context and human interaction.The Teamwork Graph turns each customer’s people, decisions, documents, code and workflows into queryable context for agents.Atlassian currently uses no Chinese models in production while routing Nemotron, Mistral and other models by quality, cost and speed; specialized models must sustain “exponential gains” as general models improve.

Harry Stebbings × Dev Ittycheria × Jason Lemkin × Rory O’Driscoll

OpenAI’s reported Q3 growth reacceleration to roughly 70% quarter-on-quarter, from 18%, sharpens the frontier-model market debate.Enterprise adoption remains sticky because procurement, training, IP rights and token budgets make replacement harder than developer switching.Anthropic’s Q3 result, expected before a possible mid-November IPO, may show whether demand is expanding or OpenAI is taking share.

Harry Stebbings × Jack Altman

Instinct’s $1 billion round at a $10 billion valuation raises the bar for defensible economics before compute costs overwhelm the company.Miro’s sale to Bending Spoons for roughly $1.35 billion after a $17.5 billion valuation shows positive cash flow cannot prevent late-stage SaaS repricing, while Mistral’s €3 billion round underscores AI’s European sovereignty agenda.

Harry Stebbings × Daniel Dines

Daniel Dines argues enterprise AI will diffuse process by process, because models retain context without being transformed by experience, while “millions of Einsteins” are not yet hireable people.The investable asset is the portable “map of work,” with AI designing deterministic, governed software around probabilistic models; UiPath’s 14% growth and production gaps in vibe-coded procurement tools leave timing and near-free human replacements as key risks.

Harry Stebbings

Instinct’s $1B raise at a $10B valuation pairs minute-long latency with compute costs: 10M users paying $10 monthly imply a $1.2B annual burden.Jason’s reversal—from recommending the round to refusing it—alongside Miro’s $1.3B sale from $17.5B and Canva’s slowdown from 30% to 20%, highlights SaaS’s shift from revenue multiples to EBITDA.

Harry Stebbings × Cliff Weitzman

Speechify’s owned-GPU strategy compares $35,000–50,000 annual H100 rental with roughly $30,000 to buy, potentially lowering compute costs.NVIDIA’s deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo and Goldman Sachs could create a liquid secondary market and price floor through buybacks up to 25% of GPU value.Weitzman calls missing B2B his biggest strategic mistake; Simba 3.2 costs $10 per million characters versus ElevenLabs’ $100, but execution against an “unstoppable” rival remains unresolved.

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA delivered a record $96.2B quarter and guided to 70% growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with end-user demand and share loss the key risks.The reported near-$12.9B Hugging Face deal, not finalized or confirmed, would reinforce open-source compute economics and NVIDIA’s push to win every segment.Agents are becoming software buyers, supporting the cases for Clay at $7B and Linear at $2.5B, while cyber exposure and reward hacking remain unresolved.

Harry Stebbings × Aaron Katz

Aaron Katz rejects the AI-bubble thesis, citing unprecedented adoption and revenue acceleration.ClickHouse grew from zero to over 500 in revenue, with over 99% gross retention and over 200% net dollar retention.AI customers remain below 12% of revenue, but agentic applications’ low switching costs leave durability unresolved.